Well there does seem to be a bit of good news regarding COVID-19… it’s not affecting children, unlike every other pandemic in history that disproportionately kills the old and very young.

“We know children get infected with the virus, but they don’t appear to get very sick or die,” said Justin Lessler, an epidemiologist at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health.  “What we don’t know is how much these asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic kids transmit,” he told AFP.  “This is key to understanding their role in the epidemic.”

In a study from mid-February of 44,000 confirmed cases in and around the city of Wuhan, where the pandemic began, the 10-to-19 age bracket made up one percent of infections and a single death.  Patients under 10 comprised less than one percent, with no deaths reported.

It’s important that children practice social distancing just like adults. That means no playing with other children.

Since it’s impossible to clean surfaces like monkey bars and other playground equipment it’s best to avoid taking children to playgrounds and parks where they might touch contaminated play surfaces and touch mucous membranes of their eyes, nose, and mouth.

Not sharing toys with other children is also going to become important. And routinely cleaning the toys they are playing with will also take on a new importance.

Reintroducing pastimes that we enjoyed such as running, jumping, and playing with sticks are still good to go!

Older kids should be encouraged to take up reading, board games and Dungeons & Dragons!

I’ve been warning people for months that an extensive quarantine was not only possible, but highly likely.

And the reason it’s highly likely?

It gives time for researchers, epidemiologists, and the government to fight the virus. It’s called #FlatteningTheCurve so the medical system does not become overwhelmed with serious and critical cases.

While the idea of preventing a spike in cases has been around for a long time, someone came up with a catchy title and a better way of explaining it.

Quarantine flattens the curve and also allows the virus to burn itself out.

Things are not looking good…

The Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security estimates that 38 million Americans will need medical care for COVID-19.

Of that number, as many as 9.6 million will need to be hospitalized and about a third of them – some 3 million – will need ICU-level care. 

There are only 100,000 ICU beds in America and 790,000 ordinary beds across the country. Not all of those people will need to be hospitalized at the same time, and experts say the crisis could last up to nine months.

Trevor Bedford has done some calculations that are getting scary.  He is a Seattle, Washington scientist studying viruses, evolution and immunity — and has been looking at the gene sequencing of COVID-19 to document the spread.  He is saying that by May will be seeing an Italy type of explosion in cases in both the US and Canada.

He thinks we are at about 10,000 to 40,000 cases nationally in the USA.  But he admits he could be off…

No matter what the number is currently, this crisis has just begun and we need to change our behaviors now to #FlattenTheCurve.

But changing our behaviors might not be enough and government officials are slowly coming around to the fact that we may have to quarantine large numbers of the population in order to avoid overwhelming the medical system.

Dr. Anthony FAUCI director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases was asked by a reporter if China or Italy style quarantines would occur in the United States. FAUCI said nothing is off the table, so expected to get much much worse…

Some people who get the coronavirus could be contagious for a lot longer than the two-week quarantine period that many countries are using, a new study says.

Researchers looking at cases in China say patients could spread the virus for up to 37 days after they start showing symptoms, according to the study published in the British medical journal The Lancet.

On average, survivors still had the virus in their respiratory system for about 20 days and could presumably continue to spread the disease, researchers found.

Not sure WTF is going on in Washington and the CDC — but someone needs to be fired.  I have a feeling that the American public is going to fire Trump in November.

Despite insistent promises from the Trump administration, coronavirus testing in the United States appears to be proceeding with a marked lack of urgency. An examination of state and federal records by Yahoo News finds that American states are, on average, testing fewer than 100 people per day — while the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention had tested fewer than 100 people total in the first two days of this week.

Source: CDC tested only 77 people this week; coronavirus testing slow around the nation

Robert Redfield, director of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention lied to Congress.  He told the US Congress last week…

…that his agency is aggressively evaluating how long coronavirus can survive and be infectious on surfaces. “On copper and steel its pretty typical, it’s pretty much about 2 hours,” Redfield said at a House of Representatives hearing on the government response to the fast-spreading virus. “But I will say on other surfaces — cardboard or plastic — it’s longer, and so we are looking at this.” He said infections contracted from surfaces rather than through the air could have contributed to the outbreak on the Diamond Princess cruise ship. —Reuters

He lied.

Federally funded tests conducted by scientists at Princeton University, the University of California-Los Angeles (UCLA) and the National Institutes of Health (NIH) indicated that the COVID-19 virus could remain viable in the air “up to 3 hours”.

The study also found that viable virus could be detected in/on…

  • aerosols up to 3 hours post aerosolization.
  • Copper surface 4 hours
  • Cardboard 24 hours
  • Plastic 2-3 days
  • Stainless Steel 2-3 days
  • Polypropylene 3 days

What does “viable” mean?

In this context, the word viable means that COVID-19 (also called SARS-CoV-2) is able to replicate.

So if the airborne virus lands on a mucous membrane of your body you can contract Covid 19. Examples of mucous membranes include the mouth, nose, eyelids, trachea (windpipe) and lungs, stomach and intestines.

The test results suggest that humans could be infected by the disease simply carried through the air or on a solid surface, even if direct contact with an infected person does not occur. That finding, if accepted, would come in stark contrast to previous media reports that suggested the virus was not easily transmittable outside of direct human contact.

REFERENCE: The Hill – “Tests indicate coronavirus can survive in the air”

If we can’t trust the director for the Centers for Disease Control, who the fuck can we trust? If he doesn’t know the answer to a question — that’s what he needs to say!

Now is not the time to be guessing. We need answers.

I get that this is a novel virus.

I get that were not going to have all the answers we need.

But don’t say something that is patently false! We are depending on accurate factual information!

[ Reference: Find the study here ]

 

Listening to Gov. Jay INSLEE talking about the next steps in his state to battle the coronavirus, made me think of this photo…

Washington State Governor Jay Inslee spoke on CBS’s “Face The Nation” this week and said that although voluntary measures to control the coronavirus are being complied with by residents, he said:

We may have to go to the next step, and we are thinking about those seriously to get ahead of this curve.

When pushed by host Margaret Brennan on whether or not, he was going to institute quarantines in Seattle and “shut it down” down like China and Italy — Inslee said:

Well, we don’t use that kind of language, but we certainly are
contemplating requirements for what we call social
distancing in the public health realm…

We are contemplating in fact I’m going to a meeting in about an
hour about this subject right now we are looking at extending what are voluntary decisions right now.

When asked point blank if the next step was quarantine, Inslee replied:

Not necessarily quarantine, but reducing the number of social activities that are going on… And we need to make decisions about that looking forward… Looking what the modeling suggests… the infection rate will be going forward… and this will be or could be hard for the public because they may not have seen the full wave yet.  We need to anticipate that wave (and) get ahead of it.

I urge you to watch the video.  And then you tell me…

Are they looking into mass quarantines, in your opinion?

One man has infected 37 people in the State of New York. An absolutely staggering number attributed to ONE person. The SARS-CoV-2 virus has to be airborne — just as the Chinese have said…

The number of coronavirus cases in New York state doubled on Friday, hitting 44 — and the majority of them can be traced back to one man, state officials said.That man — identified by sources as Lawrence Garbuz, 50 — is believed to be the common denominator in at least 37 of the cases — highlighting the alarming way the illness can spread in tight-knit communities.

Source: Coronavirus cases reach 33 in New York state

Covid strains from NextStrain.com

As I said a couple weeks ago…

India is a gas soaked rag waiting for a spark.

I hate being right, because that spark lit off an explosion of cases today!

India was bragging that it was virus free just last week while Trump was visiting. However in less than 24 hours they’ve gone from 0 cases to 29.

There appears to be two primary strains of coronavirus circulating around the globe. However, there are actually dozens of strains already, as COVID-19 mutates roughly twice a months.

The shitty thing for India is that a bunch of Italian tourists brought over the deadlier version.

How hard is it going to be to control in India?  This ought to give you and idea…

Cow Piss And Shit Cakes! Mmmmm…

NCP MP Vandana Chavan says in Rajya Sabha, “There is misinformation being spread on coronavirus while some leaders are talking about how gaumutra and cow dung cakes can cure coronavirus. This should not happen.” She was interrupted by Rajya Sabha Chairman Venkaiah Naidu, who said that is upon people to believe or not.

I just had a good friend leave for India yesterday.  He planned on being gone for a month.  I hope he comes back right away.

The idiot BC Provincial Health Officer Bonnie Henry has finally decided to test people with serious respiratory symptoms for influenza — and if that test is negative — then doctors will test for COVID-19.

About fucking time.

I think it is too little too late, and they are going to find significant community spread.

B.C. provincial health officer Bonnie Henry said Monday officials have added COVID-19 testing to the province’s existing influenza surveillance network, which means a broad array of patients will undergo screening for the coronavirus. B.C. is also checking all patients admitted to hospital with severe respiratory illness for COVID-19 if they have a negative flu test.

What they need to be more aggressive in their testing…  And use the precautionary principle in tackling all aspects of this pandemic.

  1. Doctors SHALL instruct patients expressing flu-like symptoms to self-quarantine until further notice.
  2. Doctors SHALL test all people expressing flu-like symptoms for the influenza virus.
  3. If the influenza test is negative, doctors SHALL immediately test for COVID-19.

As I have been saying for weeks.  COVID-19 has been circulating uncontrolled because of ridiculously flawed testing criteria from the CDC.  The same thing is going on in Vancouver, where a flu-like viral sickness has been circulating.  A sickness that authorities are NOT testing.

Why?

The are using the same old criteria the US CDC just abandoned as being too conservative in order to catch community spread.

These reporters determined COVID-19 has been under the radar in Washington State and is now killing people…

The coronavirus has been circulating undetected and has possibly infected scores of people over the past six weeks in Washington state, according to a genetic analysis of virus samples that has sobering implications for the entire country amid heightening anxiety about the likely spread of the disease.

The researchers conducted genetic sequencing of two virus samples. One is from a patient who traveled from China to Snohomish County in mid-January and was the first person diagnosed with the disease in the United States. The other came from a recently diagnosed patient in the same county, a high school student with no travel-related or other known exposure to the coronavirus.  The two samples look almost identical genetically, said Trevor Bedford, a computational biologist at Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center in Seattle who announced the results of the research on Twitter late Saturday night.

This strongly suggests that there has been cryptic transmission in Washington State for the past 6 weeks,” Bedford wrote. “I believe we’re facing an already substantial outbreak in Washington State that was not detected until now due to narrow case definition requiring direct travel to China.”

 

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